Trend Analysis for Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events over the Headwater of Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47941/jcp.1235Abstract
Purpose: Increased trends in extreme climate events such as prolonged hot or cold days and intensively rainy days or consecutive dry days have greater negative impacts on society. While studies are conducted on climate variability and impacts most of them focus on the mean climatologies. Extrem events of Tempertaure and preciptation however have profound effect on human health and the environment. The present study aims to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of means and extremes of temperature and precipitation events in the Tana-Beles Sub-basin for the 1980-2015 periods.
Methodology: Daily temperature and preciptaion time series was collected from the Ethiopian meteorological institute covering the 1980-2015. From the daily climate variables 22 daily extreme climate indices are calculated based on the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) definitions.
Findings: The Monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures show mostly increasing trends. The mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures increased slightly, respectively, by 0.047 and 0.014 oC/yr. The frequency of cold days/nights has reduced by 33/38 days/nights annually; whereas, the frequency of warm days/nights has increased by 91/83 days/nights. The mean monthly, seasonal and annual precipitations also show mostly increasing trends.Among the selected precipitation indices the number of very heavy rain days (R20mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), very wet days exceeding the 95th percentile (R95p), and annual total wet days precipitation (RCPTOT) shows increasing trend; whereas, only the maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day), show an insignificant decreasing trend. Precipitation during the study period shows high variability spatially and temporally.
Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The study reveals increasing in number of hot days and vraible prciptation events, hence measures must be taken to reduce risks of extreme tempertures such as direct effect and indirect malaria distributions to new areas that have been cold before, and agricultural advised forming is also suggested to cope with the variabilities of prciptation.
Keywords: Climate trends; extremes climate events; Temperature and rainfall; and Tana-Beles Sub basins.
Downloads
References
L. Alexander, P. Hope, D. Collins, B. Trewin, A. Lynch, and N. Nicholls, “Trends in Australia’s climate means and extremes: A global context,” Aust. Meteorol. Mag., vol. 56, pp. 1–18, Mar. 2007.
C. J. R. Williams, D. R. Kniveton, and R. Layberry, “Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 9–27, 2010, doi: 10.1007/s00704-009-0124-y.
A. De Bono, G. Giuliani, S. Kluster, and P. Peduzzi, “Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe,” Environ. Alert Bull. UNEP, no. August, p. 4, 2004, [Online]. Available: http://www.preventionweb.net/files/1145_ewheatwave.en.pdf.
G. Choi et al., “Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955-2007,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 29, pp. 1906–1925, Nov. 2009, doi: 10.1002/joc.1979.
Supari, F. Tangang, L. Juneng, and E. Aldrian, “Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 1979–1997, Mar. 2017, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4829.
M. J. Manton et al., “Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 269–284, Mar. 2001, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.610.
D. Sharma and M. Babel, “Trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in the western Thailand,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 34, pp. 2393–2407, Jun. 2014, doi: 10.1002/joc.3846.
M. Hellmuth, M. A, T. M.C, and W. J, Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. 2007.
J. Dixon, A. Gulliver, and D. Gibbon, Farming Systems and Poverty: Improving Farmers’ Livelihoods in a Changing World. FAO, Rome. 2001.
E. Viste, D. Korecha, and A. Sorteberg, “Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., vol. 112, no. 3, pp. 535–551, 2013, doi: 10.1007/s00704-012-0746-3.
P. Omondi, J. L. Awange, L. A. Ogallo, R. A. Okoola, and E. Forootan, “Decadal rainfall variability modes in observed rainfall records over East Africa and their relations to historical sea surface temperature changes,” J. Hydrol., vol. 464–465, pp. 140–156, 2012, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.07.003.
S. Hastenrath, D. Polzin, and C. Mutai, “Diagnosing the Droughts and Floods in Equatorial East Africa during Boreal Autumn 2005-08,” J. Clim. - J Clim., vol. 23, pp. 813–817, Feb. 2010, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3094.1.
B. Bates et al., Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2008.
J. Kreyling, “Winter climate change: a critical factor for temperate vegetation performance,” Ecology, vol. 91, no. 7, pp. 1939–1948, Jul. 2010, doi: https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1160.1.
S. A. Legesse, “Ethiopian summer temperature from the global circulation model output data and its outlooks,” Environ. Syst. Res., vol. 5, no. 1, p. 26, 2016, doi: 10.1186/s40068-016-0077-y.
T. M. Weldegerima, T. T. Zeleke, B. S. Birhanu, B. F. Zaitchik, and Z. A. Fetene, “Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Its Relationship with SST Signals in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia,” Adv. Meteorol., vol. 2018, 2018, doi: 10.1155/2018/5869010.
A. Mekasha and A. J. Duncan, “Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments,” 2013, doi: 10.1002/joc.3816.
C. McSweeney, M. New, G. Lizcano, and X. Lu, “The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 91, no. 2, pp. 157–166, Feb. 2010, [Online]. Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/26232858.
D. Mengistu and R. Lal, “Recent spatiotemporal temperature and rainfall variability and trends over the Upper Blue Nile River Basin , Ethiopia,” vol. 2292, no. October 2013, pp. 2278–2292, 2014, doi: 10.1002/joc.3837.
S. Rosell and B. Holmer, “Rainfall Change and Its Implications for belg Harvest in South Wollo, Ethiopia,” Geogr. Ann. Ser. A, Phys. Geogr., vol. 89, pp. 287–299, Dec. 2007, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0459.2007.00327.x.
Y. Seleshi and U. Zanke, “Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 24, no. 8, pp. 973–983, 2004, doi: 10.1002/joc.1052.
X. Zhang et al., “Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data,” Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang., vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 851–870, 2011, doi: 10.1002/wcc.147.
B. Trewin, “A new index for monitoring changes in heatwaves and extended cold spells,” Jan. 2009.
S. A. Klein et al., “Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. I: single-layer cloud,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 135, no. 641, pp. 979–1002, Apr. 2009, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.416.
G. M. Griffiths et al., “Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia–Pacific region,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 25, no. 10, pp. 1301–1330, Aug. 2005, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1194.
Y. Getahun, “Analysis of Climate Variability (ENSO) and Vegetation Dynamics in Gojjam, Ethiopia,” J. Earth Sci. Clim. Change, vol. 06, Jan. 2015, doi: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000320.
T. T. Zeleke, F. Giorgi, G. T. Diro, and B. F. Zaitchik, “Trend and periodicity of drought over Ethiopia,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 37, no. 13, pp. 4733–4748, 2017, doi: 10.1002/joc.5122.
F. Hagos, A. Haileslassie, and S. Awlachew, “Assessment of local land and water institutions in the Blue Nile and their impact on environmental management,” Int. Water Manag. Institute, Conf. Pap., Jan. 2009.
A. Engida, “Hydrological and Suspended Sediment Modeling in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia,” Nov. 2010.
L. Poppe et al., The geomorphological map of Lake Tana basin (Ethiopia). 2013.
E. Aguilar et al., “Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa , Guinea Conakry , and Zimbabwe , 1955 – 2006,” vol. 114, pp. 1–11, 2009, doi: 10.1029/2008JD011010.
L. A. Vincent et al., “Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960-2000,” J. Clim., vol. 18, no. 23, pp. 5011–5023, 2005, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3589.1.
H. Tuomenvirta, “Trends in nordic and arctic temperature extremes and ranges,” J. Clim., vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 977–990, 2000, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0977:TINAAT>2.0.CO;2.
X. Wang, “Penalized Maximal F Test for Detecting Undocumented Mean Shift without Trend Change,” J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. - J ATMOS Ocean TECHNOL, vol. 25, Mar. 2008, doi: 10.1175/2007JTECHA982.1.
X. L. Wang and Y. Feng, “RHtestsV4 User Manual,” Clim. Res. Div. Atmos. Sci. Technol. Dir. Sci. Technol. Branch, Environ. Canada, no. July, p. 29, 2013, [Online]. Available: http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/software.shtm.
G. T. Diro, D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black, “Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting,” Clim. Dyn., vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 121–131, 2011, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x.
T. Gissila, E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo, “Seasonal forecasting of the ethiopian summer rains,” vol. 1358, pp. 1345–1358, 2004, doi: 10.1002/joc.1078.
X. Zhang, G. Hegerl, F. W. Zwiers, and J. Kenyon, “Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes,” J. Clim., vol. 18, no. 11, pp. 1641–1651, 2005, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3366.1.
S. Gajbhiye, C. Meshram, R. Mirabbasi, and S. K. Sharma, “Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., vol. 125, no. 3, pp. 593–608, 2016, doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1529-4.
M. Kendall, “Rank Correlation Methods,” Jan. 1975.
S. H. Gebrechorkos, S. Hülsmann, and C. Bernhofer, “Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 18–30, Jan. 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5777.
S. Dobrowski, J. Abatzoglou, J. Greenberg, and S. Schladow, “How much influence does landscape-scale physiography have on air temperature in a mountain environment?,” Agric. For. Meteorol., vol. 149, pp. 1751–1758, Oct. 2009, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.06.006.
L. Cheng and J. Zhu, “2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean,” Adv. Atmos. Sci., vol. 35, pp. 261–263, Mar. 2018, doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8011-z.
I. (Senegal et al., “Chapter 22 Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” 2014, pp. 1199–1265.
T. Y. Gan et al., “Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources and capacity building for Africa,” Hydrol. Sci. J., vol. 61, no. 7, pp. 1209–1226, May 2016, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2015.1057143.
U. Adhikari, A. P. Nejadhashemi, and S. A. Woznicki, “Climate change and eastern Africa: a review of impact on major crops,” Food Energy Secur., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 110–132, Jul. 2015, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61.
R. Anyah and W. Qiu, “Characteristic 20th and 21st century precipitation and temperature patterns and changes over the Greater Horn of Africa,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 32, pp. 347–363, Mar. 2012, doi: 10.1002/joc.2270.
F. Mequanint, M. R, and A. Shiferaw, “Observed and Future Climate Variability and Extremes Over East Shoa Zone, Ethiopia,” J. Climatol. Weather Forecast., vol. 04, Jan. 2016, doi: 10.4172/2332-2594.1000183.
R. Pankhurst and D. Johnson, “The great drought and famine of 1888–92 in northeast Africa,” 2019, pp. 47–72.
E. Wood, “An analysis of flood levee reliability,” Water Resour. Res., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 665–671, Jun. 1977, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/WR013i003p00665.
W. Bank, “World Development Report 2006,” http://lst-iiep.iiep-unesco.org/cgi-bin/wwwi32.exe/[in=epidoc1.in]/?t2000=021637/(100), Jan. 2005, doi: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6249-5.
G. Diro, D. Grimes, and E. Black, “Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: Part I-observation and modelling,” Clim. Dyn., vol. 37, pp. 103–119, Jul. 2010, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Tesfay Mekonnen Weldegerima, Belay Simane, Tadesse terefe
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
