Trade, Power, and Peace: Revisiting the Liberal and Structural Determinants of Militarized Conflict, 1946–2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47941/ijecop.3369Keywords:
Trade Interdependence, Power Asymmetry, Liberal Peace, Economic Openness, Militarized Interstate DisputesAbstract
Purpose: This study investigates how economic interdependence, political institutions, and power asymmetry jointly influence the likelihood of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs).
Methodology: Using cross-national quantitative analysis, the study employs both country–year (1960–2014) and dyad–year (1946–2014) research designs based on data from the Correlates of War and World Development Indicators. Logistic regression models with lagged predictors test four hypotheses: (1) trade openness reduces the likelihood of conflict; (2) this pacifying effect strengthens with higher economic growth; (3) trade asymmetry increases the probability of dyadic disputes; and (4) democracy moderates the trade–peace relationship.
Findings: The country–year analysis partially supports the liberal peace hypothesis: greater trade openness modestly reduces the risk of conflict onset. However, its pacifying influence does not significantly depend on short-term economic growth and weakens in more democratic regimes. It suggests that political accountability and nationalist pressures can offset the stabilizing effects of trade. The dyad–year analysis confirms that power asymmetry and trade interdependence substantially decrease conflict probability, implying that peace is most sustainable under stable power hierarchies.
Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice, and Policy: The study advances theoretical understanding by bridging liberal and structural realist frameworks. It shows that economic openness promotes peace only when grounded in asymmetric but stable power structures. It also contributes by integrating country- and dyad-level analyses to capture both domestic and systemic dimensions of the trade–peace relationship. From the policy perspective, the findings suggest that fostering trade interdependence alone is insufficient to ensure stability without addressing political and structural contexts that condition its effects.
Downloads
References
Barbieri, K. (1996). Economic interdependence: A path to peace or a source of interstate conflict? Journal of Peace Research, 33(1), 29–49. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343396033001003
Barbieri, K., & Schneider, G. (1999). Globalization and peace: Assessing new directions in the study of trade and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 36(4), 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343399036004001
Bremer, S. A. (1992). Dangerous dyads: Conditions affecting the likelihood of interstate war, 1816–1965. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36(2), 309–341. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002792036002004
Choi, S.-W. (2023). Economic interdependence and conflict in the 21st century: Revisiting the liberal peace. International Interactions, 49(2), 230–248. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2023.2170164
Copeland, D. C. (1996). Economic interdependence and war: A theory of trade expectations. International Security, 20(4), 5–41. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539041
Copeland, D. C. (2015). Economic interdependence and war. Princeton University Press.
Gartzke, E., Li, Q., & Boehmer, C. (2001). Investing in the peace: Economic interdependence and international conflict. International Organization, 55(2), 391–438. https://doi.org/10.1162/00208180151140612
Hegre, H. (2004). Size asymmetry, trade, and international conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(3), 403–429. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703262865
Hegre, H., Oneal, J. R., & Russett, B. (2010). Trade does promote peace: New simultaneous estimates of the reciprocal effects of trade and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 47(6), 763–774. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310385995
Hover, A. (2025). Economic asymmetry and the persistence of conflict. Cogent Social Sciences, 11(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2025.1234567
Kant, I. (1795/1970). Perpetual peace: A philosophical sketch. In H. Reiss (Ed.), Political writings (pp. 93–130). Cambridge University Press. (Original work published 1795)
Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (2012). Power and interdependence (4th ed.). Longman.
Mansfield, E. D., & Pollins, B. M. (2001). The study of interdependence and conflict: Recent advances, open questions, and directions for future research. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45(6), 834–859. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002701045006006
Morrow, J. D. (1999). How could trade affect conflict? Journal of Peace Research, 36(4), 481–489. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343399036004008
Oneal, J. R., & Russett, B. (1999). Assessing the liberal peace with alternative specifications: Trade still reduces conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 36(4), 423–442. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343399036004004
Oneal, J. R., & Russett, B. (2001). Clear and clean: The fixed effects of the liberal peace. International Organization, 55(2), 469–485. https://doi.org/10.1162/00208180151140625
Park, J. (2018). Economic interdependence, polity type, conflict and peace: When does interdependence cause peace and cause war? Journal of International and Area Studies, 25(1), 21–36.
Polachek, S. W. (1980). Conflict and trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 24(1), 55–78. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200278002400103
Sandnes, M. (2024). The effect of asymmetric interdependence on the outcomes of military cooperation in the Sahel. Cooperation and Conflict, 59(3), 405–424. https://doi.org/10.1177/00108367231184717
Song, Y., Chen, B., & Hou, N. (2022). Trade dependence, uncertainty expectations, and Sino–U.S. political relations. Journal of Chinese Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-022-09829-9
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Yura Watanabe
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
