Economic Statecraft in the Crosshairs: The Effectiveness of Sanctions in the US-Iran Conflict

Abstract

Purpose: This article critically examines the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, especially in light of recent geopolitical developments between 2018 and 2026.

Methodology: Drawing on empirical evidence from global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and United Nations reports, the study interrogates whether sanctions have achieved their intended objectives or produced unintended consequences that reshape global economic and political alignments.

Findings: The analysis reveals that while sanctions have significantly weakened Iran's economy, reducing oil exports, devaluing currency, and increasing inflation, they have not fully achieved strategic compliance in terms of nuclear disarmament or regional behavior modification. Instead, Iran has demonstrated resilience through economic adaptation, regional alliances, and alternative financial mechanisms. The article further explores how sanctions have accelerated the emergence of a multipolar economic order, with countries such as China and Russia providing alternative pathways for sanctioned states. The findings suggest that economic sanctions, though powerful, are increasingly contested as tools of international governance, raising critical questions about their sustainability, legitimacy, and long-term effectiveness.

Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Theoretically, the study extends coercion theory by demonstrating how target-state adaptation and the emergence of a multipolar economic order constrain the effectiveness of unilateral sanctions. In terms of practice and policy, it offers a re-evaluated framework that urges policymakers to move beyond traditional sanctions design and integrate economic, diplomatic, and strategic considerations, accounting for target resilience and shifting global power alignments.