Impact of Gross Domestic Product on the Growth of Bond Markets in Kenya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47941/ijf.1115Keywords:
Gross Domestic Product, Bond Market Growth, Diaspora RemittanceAbstract
Purpose: Bond markets are an example of financial markets that are very essential in promoting greater economic efficiency by channeling funds from savers to investors. This study investigated the influence of gross domestic product on growth of bond market in Kenya. The study further examined the moderating effect of diaspora remittance on the relationship between gross domestic product and the growth of bond market in Kenya.
Methodology: Secondary data was obtained from the CBK, KNBS and NSE and covered a period of 20 years. Time series regression analysis was used in the study. The study employed descriptive research design.
Findings: The study established that the gross domestic product had a major effect on the growth of bond market for the period of study. The study findings revealed that the GDP had a strong positive influence on the growth of bond markets. After moderation the effect improved more with the significance p-value. The study concluded that there was a positive statistically significant effect of GDP on bond market growth in Kenya.
Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The study recommended that the capital market authority as a policy maker should enhance policies that promote investment in the bond market. Further studies should also be carried out incorporating other macroeconomic variables not included in this study. Finally, the study also recommended that CBK should ensure that it improves on measures that control the GDP and diaspora remittance as they influence the growth of bond market.
Downloads
References
Adhikari, D. R., & Guru-Gharana, K. K. (2014). An econometric study of the effect of remittances on inflation in India. Journal of International Business Research, 13(1), 105.
Ahwireng-Obeng, A. S., &Ahwireng-Obeng, F. (2019). Macroeconomic determinants of sovereign bond market development in African emerging economies. International Journal of Emerging Markets.
Andere, C. (2017). Establishing the Causal Relationship between Inflation and Yield Curve Movements in Kenya for the Period Between 2010 to 2016 (Doctoral dissertation, United States International University-Africa).
Bekaert, G., Engstrom, E., & Grenadier, S. R. (2010). Stock and bond returns with moody investors. Journal of Empirical Finance, 17(5), 867-894.
Bhattacharyay, B. N. (2013). Determinants of bond market development in Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 24, 124-137.
Blumberg, B., Cooper, D., & Schindler, P. (2014). EBOOK: Business Research Methods. McGraw Hill.
Brickman Bhutta, C. (2012). Not by the book: Facebook as a sampling frame. Sociological methods & research, 41(1), 57-88.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., &MacKinlay, A. C. (2012). The econometrics of financial markets. princeton University press.
Central Bank of Kenya, 2017). The Kenya Finacial sector stability report. Published by the Financial Sector Regulators Forum, September 2018, Issue No. 9
Galang and Kalui (2015). The relationship between earnings announcements and stock prices at the Nairobi securities exchange. Journal of economics, commerce and management, 6(1), 166-167
Gallagher, L. A., & Taylor, M. P. (2002). The Stock Return-Inflation Puzzle Revisited. Economics Letters, 75(2), 147-156.
Ganatra, S. (2016). Factors Affecting the Performance of Infrastructure Bonds in Kenya: A Case of Kengen Infrastructure Bond (Doctoral dissertation, United States International University-Africa).
Githinji, W. A. (2013) Effect of selected macroeconomic variables on bond market development in Kenya. Unpublished MBA Thesis, Nairobi: University of Nairobi.
Hondroyiannis, G., &Papapetrou, E. (20155). An examination of Wagner's law for Greece: A cointegration analysis. Public Finance= Finances publiques, 50(1), 67-79.
Hussain, S., & Malik, S. (2011). Inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 262-276.
Igbarago, M. E., &Eromosele, H. O. (2016). Econometric analysis of the effect of inflation on investment in Nigeria. International Journal of Business & Economics Perspectives, 11(1).
Ishak, N. M., Bakar, A., &Yazid, A. (2014). Developing Sampling Frame for Case Study: Challenges and Conditions.World Journal of Education, 4(3), 29-35.
Kahn, B. (2005). Original sin and bond market development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Africa in the world economy: The national, regional and international challenges, 67-87.
Kamenju, C. I. (2018). Effect Of Macroeconomic Factors on The Development of Bond Market In Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).
Kariuki W. N. &Kagiri A. (2016). Effect of inflation on Aggregate Bond performance in
Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya.International Journal of management and
commerce innovations, 4(2), 288-294.
Kemboi, J. K. &Tarus, D. N (2012). Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market
Development in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Kenya. Research Journal of
Finance and Accounting, 3(5).
Kullapom, L., &Lalita, R. (2010). Relationship between Inflation and Stock Prices in Thailand (Doctoral dissertation, Master's Thesis, Umea University, Sweden).
Lee, C. M. (2001). Market efficiency and accounting research: a discussion of "˜capital market research in accounting'by SP Kothari. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 31(1-3), 233-253.
Longei, H. (2017). Determinants of bond market index at the Nairobi securities exchange in Kenya. Strategic journal of business & change management, 4(4), 58-69.
Modigliani, F., & Cohn, R. A. (1979). Inflation, rational valuation and the market. Financial Analysts Journal, 35(2), 24-44.
Mohammad, B.A. (2011) "Impact of Micro and Macroeconomic Variables on Emerging
Stock Market Return: A Case on Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE)",
Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business.
Mukiza, C. N. (2011). Current Inflation Trends: Main Drivers. Causes and Policy Implications, Uganda Bureau of Statistics Staff Working Papers.
Newing, H. (2010). Conducting research in conservation: social science methods and practice. Routledge.
Ngaruiya, M., &Njuguna, A. (2016). Influence of Inflation on Bond Prices: A Survey of Bonds Listed At the Nairobi Securities. American Journal of Economics, 1(2), 50-63.
Ngugi, R. W. And Agoti, J. (2014). Microstructure elements of bond markets in Kenya. African conference paper, 46 KIPPRA Discussion Paper No.027, Nairobi: Kenya Institute for Public Policy
Ngugi, S.M. & Afande, F.O. (2015). Drivers for Issuance of Corporate Bonds by Listed Companies in Kenya. Developing Country Studies, 5(7), 143-64.
Ritter, J. R. (2012). Is Economic Growth Good for Investors? 1. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 24(3), 8-18.
Riungu, J. (2016). A Survey of Factors Determining Development of Corporate bonds Market in Kenya Unpublished MBA thesis, Nairobi: University of Nairobi.
Saunders, M., Lewis, P. H. I. L. I. P., &Thornhill, A. D. R. I. A. N. (2007). Research methods. Business Students 4th edition Pearson Education Limited, England.
Shiblee, L. S. (2009). The impact of inflation, GDP, unemployment, and money supply on stock prices.GDP, Unemployment, and Money Supply on Stock Prices (December 29, 2009).
Siele, W. (2009). Study on the relationship between bond market return and some selected macroeconomic variables in Kenya. Unpublished MBA Thesis, Juja: JKUAT.
Tabachnick, B. G., Fidell, L. S., & Ullman, J. B. (2007). Using multivariate statistics (Vol. 5, pp. 481-498). Boston, MA: Pearson.
Tala, L. (2017). Fiscal, Deficit, Inflation, Money Supply and Exchange Rate in South Africa (Doctoral dissertation, Nelson Mandela University).
Wanyama, D. W. (2017). Effect of stock market volatility on the growth of corporate bond market in Kenya. International Journal of Finance, 2(2), 76-91.
Wei, C. (2009). Does the Stock Market React to Unexpected Inflation Differently Across the business cycle? Applied Financial Economics, 19(24), 1947-1959.
Worlu, C. N., &Omodero, C. O. (2017). A comparative analysis of macroeconomic variables and stock market performances in Africa (2000-2015). International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 7(4), 95-102.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Linet Moraa Amenya, Prof Willy Muturi, Dr. Oluoch Oluoch, Dr. Assumpta Kagiri
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.