Ancient Drought Prediction and Receptiveness Practices among Communities Influence on Food Security. A Critical Literature Review

Authors

  • Markson Muriuki University of Nairobi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47941/jcp.1058

Abstract

Purpose:  Drought prediction practices entail observing behavior of certain animals, plants, trees, winds, clouds, temperature changes and other natural phenomena at the local level. The overall objective of this study was to examine ancient drought prediction and receptiveness practices among communities' influence on food security.

Methodology: The paper used a desk study review methodology where relevant empirical literature was reviewed to identify main themes and to extract knowledge gaps.

Findings: This study concluded that the interaction between the local indigenous drought experts and the formal meteorologists is central in producing climate forecasts that are meaningful for the local community. The collaboration of the various stakeholders in developing a mitigation plan on curbing food insecurity will ultimately contribute to sustainable livelihoods achieved through appropriate timing of agricultural activities, water saving and post-harvest agro-processing. Sustainable livelihoods and the resultant food security will eventually enable the community achieve sustainable development.

Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: This study recommended that although farmers listen to meteorological forecasts from radios, among other formal communication media, they also use their AKS to predict droughts. There is need to strengthen the resilience and self-confidence of the local community to cope with drought disasters. This could be achieved through recognition and propagation of indigenous drought prediction and preparedness practices and values. The study also recommends in-depth examination of the invaluable input of the indigenous prediction practices for inclusion in regards to other studies to be done.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Markson Muriuki, University of Nairobi

School of Environmental Studies

References

Anandaraja N., Rathakrishnan T., Ramasubramanian M., Saravan P., and Suganthi N. S. (2008). Indigenous weather and forecast practices of Coimbatore district farmers of Tamil Nadu. Indigenous Journal of Traditional Knowledge. Vol. 7 (4), pp 630 – 633

Anandaraja, N. (2008). Indigenous Weather and Forecast Practices, Coimbatore District Farmers. Journal of Traditional Knowledge 7, 630-633

Baumwell, J. (2008). The Value of Indigenous Knowledge for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Unique Assessment Tool for Reducing Vulnerabilities to Natural Disasters, Webster University.

Berner, J. (2016). Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Modelshttps://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1

Chang’a, L.B., Yanda, P.Z. and Ngana, J. (2010). Indigenous Knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of South-Western Highland of Tanzania. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning. Vol.3(4), pp. 66 –72.

Dinse, K.(2011). Climate Variability and Climate Change: What is the Difference? Michigan Sea Grant. Available at www.miseagrant.umich.edu/climate

Ericksen, S. (2005). The Role of Indigenous Plants in Household Adaptations to Climate Change: The Kenyan Experience. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Franzke, E., O'Kane, J., Berner, J., Williams, D. & Lucarini, V. (2015). Stochastic climate Theory and modeling. WIREs Clim Change, 6: 63–78. doi:10.1002/wcc.318

GoK (2013). Kenya Vision 2030, Flagship Projects: Fertiliser Cost-Reduction Initiative, at http://www.vision2030.go.ke/index.php/pillars/project/Economics/33, last accessed 28 August 2013.

Jensen, J. K. (2009), “Climate change and rural communities in the US”, draft briefing paper, Rural Policy Research Institute, August, 2009.

Kabubo-Mariara, J. & Karanja, F. K. (2007) The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach. Policy Research Working Paper 4334

Kalanda-SabolaM. D., Henry, M., Kayambazinthu, E. & Wilson, J. (2007). Use of indigenous knowledge and traditional practices in fisheries management: a case of Chisi Island, Lake Chilwa, Zomba. Malawi Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 8: 9-29

Kayi, C. (2016). Comparative Analysis of Traditional and Modern Early Warning Systems (Weather) in Samburu and Kitui Counties, Kenya. A Report Submitted to CAFOD

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, (2009). The Kenya Census 2009: Population and Housing Census Highlights. Government Press Kenya. University Microfilms International, Indiana University.

Kipkorir, E.C., Mugalavai, E.M. & Songok C.K. (2011). Integrating Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge Systems on Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics Prediction and Utilization. Kenya Journal of Science Technology Innovation 2. Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Technology.

Makwara, E., C (2013) Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Modern Weather Forecasting: Exploring the Linkages. Journal of Agriculture and Sustainability ISSN 2201-4357 Volume 2, Number 1, 98-141

Rengalakshmi, R., (2007). Localized Climate Forecasting System: Seasonal Climate and Weather Prediciton for Farm-Level Decision-Making. In: Sivakumar, M.V.K and Hansen, J., (2007). (eds) Climate Prediciton and Agriculture:Advances and Challenges. World Meteorological Organization, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg

Roncoli, C., Okoba, B., Gathaara, V., Ngugi, J., and Nganga, T. (2010). Adaptation to Climate Change for Smallholder Agriculture in Kenya: Community based Perspectives from Five Districts. University of Georgia

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change-UNFCCC. (2007), Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries, Information Services of the UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn

Downloads

Published

2022-10-08

How to Cite

Muriuki , M. M. (2022). Ancient Drought Prediction and Receptiveness Practices among Communities Influence on Food Security. A Critical Literature Review. Journal of Climate Policy, 1(1), 49–59. https://doi.org/10.47941/jcp.1058

Issue

Section

Articles