Vulnerability of Communities to Climate Change Induced Disaster Risks and Potential Mental Health Outcomes in Isiolo County, Kenya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47941/jps.751Abstract
Purpose: The study was conducted to identify and evaluate disaster risks and mental health outcomes caused by extreme climate events.
Methodology: Quantitative data was obtained from existing climate and mental health (1984-2019) records, while qualitative data was obtained from literature review of case studies and content analysis, Focus Group Discussion and household survey in four major zones for two consecutive years. ArcGIS software method explored various properties of the climate systems to infer the distribution of climate parameters, select extremes value and calculate linear trend of time series. The quantitative data was analyzed using statistical tools in Excel, IBM SPSS version 20 while climate data analysis was done using R software (version 3.21).
Results: The exceedance threshold of 𜇠= 340 ð‘šð‘š was chosen. On the other hand, mean exceedance threshold of 𜇠= 36.50ð¶ and 𜇠= 11.380ð¶ for minimum and maximum temperatures respectively. The rainfall band was very high or very low, deemed to create disaster risks. The results revealed that the most common disaster risks include: drought and heatwaves, strong sand storms, flash floods and floods. The duration of time, frequency and unpredictable weather variability events were above critical threshold, hence categorized as high risk, rated 1, hence fatal.
Unique Contribution to Theory and Practice: The study provides historical empirical data on hazard mapping and mental health outcomes to enable policy and programmes formulation by state and nonstate actors. The study recommends development of robust environmental health procedures to diagnose mental disorders, mapping of disasters; mental disorder epidemiology and make it user friendly to advice policy, scale up solutions and accelerate evidence informed advocacy on adaptation and resilience mental health programme strategies
Downloads
References
AEA Group (2008a). Final Report, Kenya. Climate Screening and Information Exchange (ED 05603, Issue 2). Retrieved from http://www.dewpoint.org.uk/ Assert % 20Library/DFID /Climate%20Risk20Assessment%20Report%20-%20Kenya.pdf Accessed August 20, 2014.
AEA Group (2008b). Kenya: Climate Screening and Information Exchange. Retrieved from http://.www.dewpoint.org.uk/Assert % 20 Library/
/Climate%20Risk20Assessment%20Report%20-%20Kenya.pdf. Accessed June 14, 2019
Anderson M.B. (2000). Vulnerability to disaster and sustainable development: A general framework for assessing vulnerability. Storms, 1: 11-25.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, (2006). Annual Report. Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
www.adpc.net/igo/category/ID116/doc/2006-mgh6kx-ADPC-annual-Report-version2006 pdf.
Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (2017). Annual Report. Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
www.adpc.net/igo/category/ID116/doc/2017-mgh6kx-ADPC-annual-Report-version2017.
Aven T. (2011). A risk concept applicable for both probabilistic and non-probabilistic perspectives. Safety Science; 49: 1080-1086.
Aven T., et al. (2014). A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 121: 1-10.
Balbus J.M., et al. (2000). Human Health and Global Climate Change: A Review of Potential Impacts in the United States. Washington, DC: Pew Centre on Global Climate Change.
Available at: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-indepth/all_reports/human_health. Accessed April 24, 2018.
Banholzer S., et al. (2014). Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change. (Ed) Zommers Z., & Singh A, doi: 10.1007/978-94-017-8598-3-2, Springer Science, Vancouver, Canada.
Barbara D.W. (2009). Content analysis: methods, applications, and issues. Health Care International, 13 (3): 321-467.
Ben S. and Koob P. (1996). Health sector approach to vulnerability reduction and emergency preparedness. World Health Statistics Quarterly 1996; 49(3/4):172-178. http://www.who.int/iris/handle/10665/54520
Berg S. (1988). Snowball Sampling. In: S. Kotz and N.M. Johnson (Eds), Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, 8:528-532.
Bharwani S., et al. (2005). Multi-Agent Modelling of Climate Outlooks and Food Security on a Community. Garden scheme in Limpopo South Africa, 2194pp.
Bolin R., et al. (1998). The Northridge earthquake: Vulnerability and Disaster. Routledge, USA, 250 pp.
Bourque F., et al. (2014). Climate change: The next challenge for public mental health? Int Rev Psychiatry. 26 (4):415-22, doi: 10.3109/09540261.2014.925851.
Brooks N. (2003). Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper, 38: 1-16.
CDKN (2012). Managing Climate Extreme and Disasters in Africa: Lessons from the IPCC SREX Report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. www.cdkn.org/srex. Accessed June 14, 2014.
Charles E.B. (2012). Focused Group Interview: An Under-Utilized Research Technique for Improving Theory and Practice in Health Education. Columbia University, New York, USA, 229 pp.
Cohen S. (2008). Knowing about Atrocities and Suffering. Cambridge: Polity Press, CB2IUR, UK, 331pp.
Coles S., et al. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values. SpringerVerlag, London.
Colin D.B. (2016). Climate change and global health. Wallingford, UK: CAB International
Das B., et al. (2013). Weak limits for exploratory plots in the analysis of extremes. Bernoulli, 19: 308-343.
Davison A.C., et al. (1990). Models for exceedances over high thresholds. Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 52: 393-442
Dodgen D., Donato N., Kelly A., La Greca J., Morganstein J., Reser J., Ruzek S., Schweitzer M.M., Shimamoto K., Thigpen T. and Ursano R. (2016). Chapter 8: Mental Health and Well-Being. The Impacts of Climate Change and Human Health in the United States. A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 217-246. http://dx.doi.org/107930/JOTX3CH.
Elizabeth F., et al. (2013). In the Neighborhoods. The Growing Role of Regional Organizations in Disaster Risk Management. The Brookings Institution: - London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement, 95 pp.
Ericksen H.S., et al. (2005). The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania. Geographical Journal, 17(1): 287-305.
Field C.B., et al. (2012). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disaster to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). New York: Cambridge University Press, 582 pp.
Field C.B., et al. (Eds.)] (2014). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 339-392.
Fitchett M.J., et al. (2014). A 66-year tropical cyclone record for South-East Africa: temporal trends in a global context. International Journal of Climatology 34(13) 3604-3615. http://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3932.
Frank T., et al. (2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Climate Change and Disasters, 30(1): 39-
Frumkin H., et al. (2008). Climate change: The public health response. American Journal of Public Health. Vol. 98 (3): 435-445. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2007.119362.
Garnaut R. (2008). Climate Change Review. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, 469 pp.
Garth A., et al. (2012). Modelling Social Vulnerability in Burkina Faso. Winter, Esri.Com Edgetech America, Inc.www.esri.com
Ghosh S., et al. (2010). A discussion on the mean excess plots. Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 120: 1492-1517.
Graham R.J., et al. (2012). Use of dynamical seasonal forecasts in the consensus outlooks for
Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). ECMWF Seminar on Seasonal Predictions, 3-7.
Graham R.J., et al. (2011). Long-range forecasting and the global framework for climate services. Climatology. Res. 47: 47-55. http://doi.org/10.3354/cr00963. 1-2.
Herrero M., Ringler C., Van de Steeg J., Thornton P., Zhu Tingju., Bryan E., Omolo A., Koo J., and Notenbaert A. (2010). Climate Variability and Climate Change and their Impacts on Kenya's Agricultural Sector. Nairobi, Kenya. ILRI.
IAC (2010). Climate Change Assessments: Review of the Processes and Procedures of the IPCC. Inter-Academy Council, Geneva, 103 pp.
ICF International (2014). CMIP Climate Data Processing Tool and Sensitivity Matrix developed as part of the Gulf Coastal Study, Phase 2. Prepared for the U.S. Department of Transport,
Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting. Available online: http: //www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/publications_and_tools/. Accessed August 16, 2018.
ICIDP (2013). Isiolo County Integrated Development Plan, 2013-2017. Nairobi, Kenya.
ICIDP (2018). Isiolo County Integrated Development Plan, ICIDP draft, 2018-2022. Nairobi, Kenya.
IPCC (2013). Climate Change (2013): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. [Stocker T.F., Qin D., Plattner G.K., Tignor M., Allen S.K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia Y., Bex V. and Midgley P.M.]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 857 pp.
IPCC (2014). Summary for Policy Makers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part A: global and Sectoral Aspects. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Field C.B, Barros V.R, and Dokken D.J, Mach K.J., Manstrandrea M.D., Bilir T.E., Chatterjee M., Ebi K.L., Estrada Y.O., Genova R.C., Girma B., Kissel E.S., Levy E.S., MacCracken S., Mastrandrea P.R. and White L.L. (Eds.)]. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: 2014:1-32. Available at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5TSFGDall.pdf. Accessed May 3, 2014.
IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Edenhofer O., Pichs-Madruga R., Sokona Y., Farahani E., Kadner S., Seyboth K., Adler A., Baum I., Brunner S., Eickemeier P., Kriemann B.,
Savolainen J., Schlömer S., Stechow C., Zwickel T. and Minx J.C. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available at:
http: //report. mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-
postplenary/ipccwg3ar5finaldraftpostplenarytechnical-summary.pdf. Accessed May 3, 2014.
Jamal H.H., et al. (2016). Climate change, extreme events, and human health implications in Asia Pacific region. Asian Pacific Journal of Public Health, https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539515599030.
Jane R., et al. (2014) Qualitative Research Practice: A Guide for Social Science Students and Researchers, 2nd Edition. Sage Publication, Los Angeles, USA, 456 pp.
Kelvin S. (2016). Hydrometeorology. Forecasting and Applications. Springer. London, Britain.
Keith S. (2013). Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disasters. ISBN 0415681057, Routledge.
Kreft S., et al. (2014). Global Climate Risk Index 2015: Who suffers most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2013 and 1994 to 2013. Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Bonn, German.
Lal P. N., et al. (2012): National Systems for Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes and Disasters. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation [Field C.B., Barros V., Stocker T.F., Qin D., Dokken D.J., Ebi K.L., Mastrandrea M.D., Mach K.J., Plattner G.K., Allen S.K., Tignor M. and Midgley P.M. (Eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of then Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 339-392.
Lewis J. (1999). Development in Disaster-Prone Places: Studies of Vulnerabilities. IT Publication, Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, 318pp.
Mosse D., et al. (1997). Development as Process: Concepts and Methods for Working with Complexity. London and New York: Routledge, 196 pp.
Mugenda O. (2003). Research Methods, Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches. Acts Press. Nairobi, Kenya.
Munich Re. (2013). Flood losses dominant disaster count in first half of 2013. Insurance Journal Sterling, Carolina, USA, 3(2): 34-68.
O'Brien L.K. (2013). A Changing Environment for Human Security: Transformative approaches to Research, Policy and Action. New York: Routledge, 469 pp.
Ouma O.Y., et al. (2014). Urban flood vulnerability and risk mapping using integrated multiparametric AHP and GIS: Methodology overview and Case study assessment. Water, 6: 1515-1545. Doi: 10.3390/w6061515 www.mdpi.com /journal/water. Eldoret, Kenya.
Oxfam International (2018). The intersection of inequality and climate change. https://viewsvoices.oxfam.org.uk/2018/11/. Accessed June 22, 2019
Peter A.S., et al. (2016). Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate-related Events. Wiley Online Library, 7 (1): 23-41.
Ruthrof K.X., et al. (2018). Subcontinental Heat Wave Triggers Terrestrial and Marine, Multi-taxa Responses. JO - Scientific Reports SP-13094 VL-8 IS-1 AB.SN-2045-2322 UR- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31236-5
Shah D.S., et.al. (2011). Climate Change and African Politics: Vulnerability to Climate Change.
Water Resources Stress and Food Insecurity in Southern Africa. Student Working Paper 1, 38 pp.
Steffen W., et al. (2013). The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather. Climate Commission, Australia.
Trochim W.M. (1989). An introduction to concept mapping: for an introduction to concept mapping: for planning and evaluation. Evaluation and Program Planning, 12(1): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/0149-7189 (89)90016-5
UNDP/UNDHA and SPDRP (1998). Guidelines for Community Vulnerability Analysis: An Approach for Pacific Island Countries, ISBN: 982-364-003-3:163 pp.
UNISDR (2012). Disaster through a Different Lens: Behind Every Effect, there is a Cause.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Thomson Reuter's AlertNet, the BBC, Vietnam TV and Tempo in Jakarta.
UNISDR AF (2017). Reducing Displacement Risk in the Greater Horn of Africa. A Baseline for Future Work. Thematic Report. http://www.unisdr.org/files/55093-20170910 greater horn of Africa drr.pdf.
UNISDR AF and CIMA (2018). Kenya Disaster Risk Profile. Nairobi. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and CIMA Research Foundation.
USAID (2011). Isiolo County Profile.
http://kenya.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/profiles/Isiolo_Dec2011%2025.pdf. Accessed August 28, 2013
USAID (2011). Counties of Kenya. http://keny a.usaid.gov/Kenya-map. Accessed August 21, 2013
USAID (2014). Spatial Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: A Review of Data, Methods, and Issues. USAID: Washington, DC, USA.
https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1860/2014%20USAID%20KENYA %20ANNUAL%20REPORT.pdf
Visser H., et al. (2014). On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate. Climate Change, 125(3-4): 461-477. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-0141179z.
Walker A.S., et al. (2008). Fatalities associated with non-convective high-wind events in the United States. Journal Application Meteorological Climatology. 47(2): 717-725.
Wealer P. (2014). Public Loss and Damage inventories to Reduce Disaster Risks in Poor Countries: The Assessment of Climate Change-Related Extreme Event in Mayanmar. United Nations Peace and Progress, 2(1): 2-22. Retrieved fromhttp://upp.unu.edu. Accessed September 18, 2017.
Wehner M.F., et al. (2018). Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5º and 2.0º C global warming scenarios as simulated by the community atmospheric model under the HAPPI protocols. Earth System Dynamics, 9: 187-195, http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2003). At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters. (2 ed.) Routledge.
Zhao L., Lyu A., Wu J., Hayes M., Tang Z., He B., Liu J. and Liu M. (2014). Impact of meteorological drought on streamflow drought in Jinghe River Basin of China. Chinese Geographical Science, 24: 694-705. Doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0726-x
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
